Scientists create a new system for modeling risk and discover that some species may be far more endangered than ever imagined

Adding insult to injury, many species that are already solidly facing extinction might actually be 100 times more endangered than previously thought, scientists say. A new mathematical model, developed by ecologists at the University of Colorado at Boulder and the University of California, produces extinction risks that are orders of magnitude higher than conservation biologists estimated in compilations like the IUCN red-list.

Older risk models may not work well enough, a letter, published in Nature by Boulder ecologist Brett Melbourne, reports. Traditional models rely on two main factors: The number of random events affecting individuals within a species, and the impact of things like temperature and weather changes on a species. But when Melbourne and colleagues added sex variations and physical variations between individuals into their model, risk went up a hundredfold.

Melbourne and colleagues made their new model by observing beetles in the lab. Natural populations, they argue, have even more individual variation than lab animals—a compelling reason, the authors say, to re-evaluate what endangered really means.

dang

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Interesting, thanks for fyi. It all depends on the validity of model variables in real world testing and quality of unbiased empirical data. Any model these days can be skewed to a certain result. Although what scientists do agree on hands down is we have a problem with extinction of rare species. Less to do with climate change and way more to do with the evil doer - MAN.

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I believe this model is probably more accurate given the old model was probably much simplier. But all in all certain animal populations are decreasing, which makes me sad.

Did you guys know that Endangered Species Act here in the U.S. is expired? No longer a priority for our government, makes me disgusted with them to be honest.

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Man, what's up with that?

I like being an alarmist..but I do think we need a current law on the books if anyone decides to push the matter and it needs enforcement.

here's some generally good info:

NESARC -- National Endangered Species Act Reform Coalition -- Commonly Asked Questions About the Endangered Species Act

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human encroachment pretty much sums it up

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